US election Centrebet analysis
Avid followers of this self-indulgent isochronal may recall that my Centrebet analysis accurately predicted the result of last year’s federal election – give or take a seat in NSW and Victoria, and 2 in Queensland (bloody banana benders) and WA.
Let us therefore apply the same analysis to the upcoming US presidential elections.
| Democrat states | Republican states |
|---|---|
| CALIFORNIA | ALABAMA |
| COLORADO | ARIZONA |
| CONNECTICUT | ALASKA |
| DELAWARE | ARKANSAS |
| DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | GEORGIA |
| FLORIDA | IDAHO |
| HAWAII | KANSAS |
| ILLINOIS | KENTUCKY |
| INDIANA | LOUISIANA |
| IOWA | MISSISSIPPI |
| MAINE | MONTANA |
| MARYLAND | NEBRASKA |
| MASSACHUSETTS | NORTH DAKOTA |
| MICHIGAN | OKLAHOMA |
| MINNESOTA | SOUTH CAROLINA |
| MISSOURI | SOUTH DAKOTA |
| NEVADA | TENNESSEE |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | TEXAS |
| NEW JERSEY | UTAH |
| NEW MEXICO | WEST VIRGINIA |
| NEW YORK | WYOMING |
| NORTH CAROLINA | |
| OHIO | |
| OREGON | |
| PENNSYLVANIA | |
| RHODE ISLAND | |
| VERMONT | |
| VIRGINIA | |
| WASHINGTON | |
| WISCONSIN |
So there we have it; the Dems to take 30 states (including Washington D.C.), and the GOP to take the remaining 21. If we translate that into actual electoral college votes (apportioning Maine and Nebraska 2-2 and 2-3 respectively), then Obama storms home with a whopping 375 votes to 163!
The closest race will be in Indiana, with the Democrats at $1.70. Centrebet has Obama at $1.07 to be the next president, however by my calculations he needs to win all the states that are at $1.11 or better to get the required 270 votes.
Of course, Centrebet is an Australian company, and so the options don’t stop at who is going to win the election. Here is my personal favourite option, which I will be putting five bucks on.
Tags: centrebet, democrats, mccain, obama, presidential election, republicans
Only In America, Politics | stu | 
October 27, 2008 9:18 pm
