WC2010 – the penultimate qualifying week
The story so far:
Qualified
- South Africa
- Japan
- Australia
- Korea Republic
- Netherlands
- Korea DPR
- Brazil
- Ghana
- England
- Spain
- Paraguay
11 teams in, 21 to go. 72 matches in the next week will see at least 12 more teams qualify, with just the playoffs and maybe some African spots to be sorted out in November. I’ll go group by group.
UEFA 1
Denmark will qualify with a home win over Sweden this weekend. Sweden, Hungary and Portugal all have a chance to qualify if they win both their games and other results go their way. If Sweden beats Denmark this weekend, there will be no Cristiano Ronald at the world cup!
UEFA 2
Switzerland will qualify with a win and a draw from their 2 games (away to Luxembourg, home to Israel). Greece, Latvia and Israel all have a small chance to qualify if they win both their games and other results go their way.
UEFA 3
Slovakia will go through with a draw at home to Slovenia. Should they lose, they’ll need to beat Poland away from home to ensure their passage. If they don’t Slovenia is in with a chance. It’s an epic battle between the former Czechoslovakians and the former Yugoslavians. My money is on the boys from Bratislava.
UEFA 4
Germany will descend on Moscow needing a victory to ensure their progress. A draw will keep them as favourites to progress, but a loss will put Russia in the hot seat. Whichever country doesn’t qualify automatically will be seeded into the playoffs anyway, so it’s likely we’ll see both teams in South Africa.
UEFA 5
Spain is already through. Bosnia just need an away win over Estonia to make the play-offs.
UEFA 6
England is already through. Ukraine need an upset win over the poms to get the upper hand in the battle against Croatia for the playoff spot.
UEFA 7
Serbia are through with a home win over Romania. If they lose, then France’s slim hopes are alive. A win for France will stitch up the playoff spot for them.
UEFA 8
An away draw against Ireland will put our old friends Italy into the Cup, hopefully lining up a revenge match for us. If Ireland wins, they still have a very slim chance of overtaking Italy for direct qualification, but will most likely go into the playoffs.
UEFA 9
The Netherlands are through already and play Australia tomorrow night in Sydney. Norway have sewn up second position, and are odds-on favourites to miss out on the play-offs by virtue of being the worst second place team.
AFC
Côte d’Ivoire are almost guaranteed to qualify after this weekend, needing just a draw against Malawi. Cameroon, Tunisia and Algeria all have a good chance to qualify this week with wins if other results go their way. For Togo and Nigeria, a win this week will put them in the hot seat to qualify with a win in November, but everyone else needs to win and hope for results to go their way.
CONCACAF
The USA just need a win to go through. Mexico need a win and a draw. Honduras and Costa Rica need two wins. El Salvador need a miracle. It will be a tight battle between Honduras and Costa Rica to see who goes down to South America to get flogged in the playoff. Both teams will need to get a result against the USA to maximise their chances. If they both win, then it’s bye bye Uncle Sam.
CONMEBOL
Brazil and Paraguay are of course already through. Chile just needs 2 points to be safe. Ecuador can also be safe with wins from both their games. For everyone else, it’s going to be a nail-biting week. Argentina seems to have the easiest passage with a home game against Peru to start up with. Colombia face Chile, Venezuela face Paraguay and Uruguay face Ecuador; losses for any of these teams would see the end of their campaign. Looks like Diego Maradona could be spared the mantle of “Worst coach ever*” for the time being.
Playoffs
Last but certainly not least: The AFC/OFC playoff 1st leg! Bahrain vs New Zealand. What a world cup it would be if Australia, South Africa and the kiwis were involved. See you next time.
*Excluding Frank Farina
October 9, 2009 1:49 pm 
