Fred’s mathematical methodology

Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2007 11:20:54 +1100
From: “S.J. Auld”
To: admin@cdp.org.au
Subject: Website claims
—

Hi,

On your website, you claim that “It is mathematically impossible for either Labor or Liberal to have A majority in the Upper House after 24 March.” Can you please verify how you have come to this conclusion, as this seems to be a misleading claim.

Total number of MLCs: 42.

Continuing: 21
Labor: 10
Liberal: 5
National: 2
Green: 2
Christian Democrats: 1
Shooters: 1

Retiring: 21

Situation 1: Labor scores at least 57% of the vote. 12 Labor members are elected, Labor holds 22/42 seats (a majority).

Situation 2: Liberals/Nationals score at least 71% of the votes. Result: 10 Liberals and 5 Nationals are elected, Coalition holds 22/42 seats (a majority).

Regards,
Stuart Auld

What are the chances that I’ll get a (sane) response?

Verity Firth vs Rochelle Porteous

I got off the rails a bit with the NSW election project, but all is forgiven now as we head into the final 25 days of the circus. I was mistaken earlier in thinking that I resided in the district of Drummoyne – after the recent redistribution, the electoral office hasn’t updated their maps, and I am in fact located in the slightly-more-interesting seat of Balman.

The last sitting member of which was one Dawn Fraser.

The district of Balmain was abolished in 1991 to form the all-new district of Port Jackson, which was in turn abolished to make way for the all-new district of Balmain. Make up your bloody minds. No wonder 25% of the people casting absentee votes at elections have no idea what district they are enrolled in.

Anyway, back to the politics.

Ms Fraser retired from politics after Balmain was abolished, and the new seat of Port Jackson was won and held by Sandra Nori for 16 years. With her retirement, and the subsequent name change, the seat is up for grabs.

Candidate #1 is Verity Firth, current City of Sydney councillor. Now the City of Sydney council has a lot of ugly people on it, but Verity really takes the cake here. Plus, she’s a lawyer and a member of the NSW Labor Party. I think she’s gonna struggle to get my vote.

Candidate #2 is Rochelle Porteous, and she is no portrait either. She is a councillor on Leichhardt Council, and is married to an Italian man, which will probably get a lot of the Haberfield/Leichhardt vote. Rochelle needs a 7% swing to become the first NSW Greens lower house member.

Candidate #3 is Peter Shmigel, a loud-mouthed New Yorker who is the ugliest of the three front-runners. His policies include criticising the Labor Party, and putting up posters of himself all around town. On the plus side, he’s a supporter of cyclists in the area.

Now, I’ve been running the numbers from the last election, and I have noticed an unusual phenomenon. 89% of electors who put the Libs above either Labor or the Greens failed to distribute their preferences. That is 8,415 Liberal votes which ended up in the bin, in an election which was won by 5,037 votes. Given that of the Lib voters who did nominate further preferences on their ballot paper, 84% gave their preference to the Greens, all Rochelle needs to do to win the election is to teach Liberal votes how the preferential system works!

There’s still hope for a hung parliament.

Mr (Alex) Alexander John MCTAGGART, MP

Time to move on to the “action seats”.

Name: Mr Alex McTaggart, MP
Party: Independent
Electorate: Pittwater
Margin: 5%

The mayor for Pittwater stormed it into Macquarie Street on the back of Johnny Brogden’s suicide attempt in 2005. While Brogden failed, the Liberal Party certainly succeeded in their death wish, copping an unprecedented 25% swing in the supercilious blue-ribbon seat.

Not being a member of either NSW Labor or the NSW Liberal Party makes McTaggart an immediately likeable fellow. Was this just a quick experiment by the people of Pittwater? Or will having an independent voice in parliament start to grow on them? I hope so.

The Libs are running a young gun straight out of Johnny Brogden’s office by the name of Rob Stokes. Rob is an environmental lawyer educated at Macquarie University, and as such possesses all the mediocrity required for a position in state politics.

Also running is Cr Patricia Giles, of the Christian Democratic Party. She doesn’t stand a chance.

My prediction for this one: Alex to win it by 4 votes.

Mr Steven John CHAYTOR, MP

Another one bites the dust, as Steven Chaytor is found guilty of wife-bashing.

Chaytor was convicted in Campbelltown Local Court today of assaulting his former girlfriend and placed on an 18-month good behaviour bond.

The member for Macquarie Fields remained impassive as Magistrate Robert Rabbidge convicted him.

In contrast, his accuser and former girlfriend, Fee Fen Njoo, appeared to shake and was comforted by a friend when the verdict was handed down.

Outside court, Ms Njoo said justice had been done, before urging other victims of domestic violence to come forward.

Name: Mr Steven Chaytor, MP
Party: ALP
Electorate: Macquarie Fields
Margin: 10%

Following his disendorsement in approimately 2 hours time, Chaytor will have lasted only 16 months after replacing former planning minister Craig Knowles. Chaytor suffered a 13% swing against him at that by-election, and another 10% swing is needed to give the seat to the big Ls.

Will it happen? I doubt it. South-west Sydney is pretty safe Labor heartland, and I think we’ll need to look further abroad before we start stumbling across any closely-contested seats. On the plus side, Labor are free to fly in another candidate for a free ride into parliament. May I suggest this time that Tommy Raudonikis be drafted in. It’s about time we got a sports minister who has actually touched a football at some time in their life, and beside, Tommy would lend immense charisma to a starved parliament. Tommy also has experience in the region, having played for the Magpies for ten years. He’s also quit smoking, and only drinks light beer, presumably in preperation for his tilt at politics. Sandra out, Tommy in.

The Hon. (Carl) Patrick Carl SCULLY, BA, LLB(Hons) MP

Name: Mr Carl Scully, MP
Party: ALP
Electorate: Smithfield
Margin: 28%

Now that the former minister for (in chronological order) Small Business and Regional Development, Public Works and Services, Roads, Transport, Housing, Police and Utilities has resigned, there’s a free ride available in Smithfield, one of the safest Labor seats in the universe. Who will get the green light from Sussex St? Carl has put his 2 cents behind Ninos Khoshaba, Fairfield councillor, but what NSW really needs is a celebrity.

Step in Sam Moran, aka the new Yellow Wiggle! With the success of Peter Garrett as member for Kingsford-Smith, I think we need more musicians in politics. And, as state government is just a ramshackle imitation of the federal system, who better than an up-and-coming Wiggle to brighten up the halls of Macquarie Street?

Reverend the Hon. (Fred) Frederick John NILE, ED LTh MLC

That’s right, our favourite christian conservative is up for re-election!

Name: The Reverend Fred Nile, MLC
Party: Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)
Order elected: 21/21

Freddie-boy was elected dead last in 1999, but 169,418 people liked him more than the Marijuana Smoker’s Rights party. During my 8,601 days of existence, Fred has been in parliament for 8,550 of them, the only gap being a brief (and thankfully unsuccessful) tilt at being elected to federal parliament.

Let’s take a quick excerpt of his maiden speech:

Also I wish to thank all those supporters who worked and prayed that I might be elected to the Parliament. Those supporters were from all churches and included non-church goers, known in the Bible as people of good will. These people included also decent members of all political parties of New South Wales. A sincere expression of thanksgiving to God was also held to give credit where credit is due. The service in the Sydney Town Hall was not intended to reflect on any other member of this House or the other place who may or may not share in those same beliefs.

And also his campaign slogan:

The Lord God of Hosts said, I want to see a mighty flood of justice, a torrent of doing good.

And more from his maiden speech:

Secular humanism which is the humane face of atheism has made serious inroads in our State, as I shall seek to show. This has led to a fundamental struggle between absolute values and relative values, between the Judeo-Christian ethic and the humanist ethic, between compassion and greed, and between spiritual values and materialism. That struggle is occurring in every area of our society—our schools, streets, prisons, welfare organizations, the media, universities, and even, dare I say, within political parties. I believe sincerely in the separation of church and state. But I do not accept the separation of faith and state. No nation can live or survive for very long in a spiritual and moral vacuum.

Anyone not sure where this guy is coming from? Good. Now let’s take a look at his policies.

On Wednesday the second of March, 1994, Fred presented a petition “praying that because of the public health risk associated with the homosexual and lesbian mardi gras parades, and their offensive and blasphemous nature, the House will take all steps necessary to prevent such future parades through the streets of Sydney”.

And, the rest of his 26-year career has basically been one long string of anti-gay, anti-abortion and anti-quated rants.

It is ridiculous. A handful of individuals are using the Act to gag free speech, even humour ..albeit poor, in New South Wales. What’s the big deal? If people feel entitled to make a joke about Baptists, Catholics, the Pope, Irish people, Jesus and God… why can’t they make a joke about homosexuals?

I particularly like this random piece of inspiration:

It seems that these people do not know that Lenin is dead, that socialism is dead, that communism is dead and even the KGB is dead.

The cold war is over, Fred, and so (hopefully) is your taxpayer-funded gravy train ride.

Angela D’Amore, MP

We are now 71 days out from a show down between two of the most useless parties in the history of politics. In the right-hand corner, we have Iemma’s mob, currently holding 54 of the 93 seats in the legislative assembly. In the other corner, we have Brogden Arnie Debnam’s rabble, with a whopping 18 seats. But who are these people?

In order to shed some light on this mystery, I shall now embark on one of the biggest projects in NSW journalistic history – to find out the stories behind the people who control the highest per capita collection of poker machines in the world.

Since I have just moved to Haberfield, and I have no idea who my local MP is, I decided that I’d better start with her. A quick Wikipedia search revealed her name: Angela D’Amore.

Name: Ms Angela D’Amore, MP
Party: ALP
Electorate: Drummoyne
Margin: 9%

Holy crap! A fiery redhead! And I thought that Johnny Brogden was the most attractive person in state politics!

Anyway, after my initial shock at discovering this photo, I thought I’d settle in for some real old-fashioned research, the Google way.

The lovely Ms D’Amore grew up on a factory floor surrounded by other migrant children. She joined the ALP at 21, and in the finest traditions of the party, became a militant unionist. She was elected in 2003, and has done bugger all since.

Oh, and I think that photo is fake, because in all her media shots, she’s quite ugly.

Hopefully next time I will choose a slightly more interesting pollie to study.