In case you’re living inside a box, here’s the story:
MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD (translated): I’m announcing officially that Iran has now joined the countries which have nuclear technology. This is a very historic moment and it’s thanks to the Iranian people and their beliefs. This is the start of progress for our country.
Iran has announced that they have successfully enriched uranium in their high security facility near Natanz. Let’s check the timeline.
1959: The Tehran Nuclear Research Center is established, and supplied with a 5 megawatt research reactor by the US.
1968: Iran signs the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty.
1970s: Iran, aided by the US, draws up plans to build plants capable of producing a total 23 GW.
1979: The Iranian Revolution transforms Iran from a pro-western constitutional monarchy to a populist theocratic republic.
September 1980: Iraq, secretly backed by the US, invades Iran.
1983: IAEA plans to assist Iran to produce enriched uranium are scrapped due to pressure from the US.
August 1988: Ceasefire with Iraq signed.
1995: The US imposes oil and trade sanctions on Iran over terrorist sponsorship allegations.
January 2001: George W. Bush sworn in to office.
October 2001: US invades Afghanistan.
January 2002: Bush describes Iran as a member of the “Axis of Evil”.
August 2002: Iranian exiles claim that Tehran has built a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
September 2002: US satellite images confirm the existence of the enrichment facility. Russian technicians begin construction of Iran’s first nuclear reactor.
December 2002: Satellite images released to public, Iran agrees to cooperate with IAEA inspectors.
February 2003: Iran reveals plans to develop a full nuclear cycle.
March 2003: US invades Iraq.
August 2003: Enriched uranium discovered at Natanz.
October 2003: Iran agrees to stop enrichment of uranium.
February 2004: Iran agrees to stop enrichment of uranium.
September 2004: IAEA orders Iran to stop preparations for large-scale uranium enrichment.
November 2004: Iran agrees to suspend uranium enrichment.
August 2005: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected president of Iran.
October 2005: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls for Israel to be wiped off the map.
April 2006: Iran announces that they have successfully enriched uranium.
Now, as part of the war of words between the US and Iran, there has been talk of tactical nuclear strikes on Iran’s facilities, which is a pretty extreme measure considering that Tehran is probably several years away from developing a bomb. You can bet your bottom dollar that the US military has their invasion plans drawn up printed out, and dumbed down for the president to be able to read. The pre-emptive strike shit is a decoy - not even bush is stupid enough to use nukes.
So, Bush still has 2 1/2 years left in power. When he invaded Iraq, he needed to justify the invasion to his people so they would re-elect him. Now however, another invasion won’t really change his approval rating much, and he doesn’t need to worry about popular opinion anyway. He can also win brownie points with the religious right by wiping out another third of the axis of evil.
I predict that Bush will pull his troops out of Iraq some time next year, and then 12 months after that, they’ll be flying into Iran, guns blazing. This will trigger responses from both Israel and Palestine, who will start blowing each other to smithereens.
Stalemate.